THE MATH – Tuesday, March 10 – Before Mississippi

8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (US)

Changes and additions today:
- “Primary only” delegates vs. “Caucus only” delegates
- The “new elections” scenario
- Mississippi’s potential impact on the numbers
- Brokered Convention information
- Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,619.0 of 3,227.0 – 81.2%

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 11:
Hillary Clinton – 1,477.5 (547.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,599.5 (425.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 945.0
(Sources: AP, Wikipedia 3/11/08)

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 11:
Hillary Clinton – 1,230.5
Barack Obama – 1,388.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 608.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/11/08)

Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton – 1,838.5 (186.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama – 1,996.5 (28.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

“Primary Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 11: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 1,076.0
Barack Obama – 1,088.0
(Source: Countdown with Keith Olbermann, 3/10/08)

“Caucus Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 11: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 154.5
Barack Obama – 300.5
(based on source for “primary only” pledged delegates above)

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 247 (Source: AP 3/11/08)
Barack Obama – 211 (Source: AP 3/11/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 337

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Status Quo as of March 11 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,388,857
Hillary Clinton – 12,748,162
(Source: Wikipedia 3/11/08 plus states listed above)

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 11 (includes WA):
Barack Obama – 12,533,944
Hillary Clinton – 12,150,484

Caucuses only (Status Quo) as of March 11:
Barack Obama – 471,170
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, as of March 11 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,965,071
Hillary Clinton – 13,619,148

With Michigan only added, as of March 11* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,388,857
Hillary Clinton – 13,076,471
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, as of March 11* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,965,071
Hillary Clinton – 13,947,457
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS

These are ALL the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,619.0 of 3,540.0, or 74.0%.

Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)

Scenario 1 – Status Quo
CLINTON NEEDS 63.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.0%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.4%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 53.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 46.2%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 60.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.0%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 59.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.1%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.8%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 56.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.1%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 55.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.7%, in all remaining contests

THE NEW ELECTIONS SCENARIO

Looking at Scenario 2 above, if both Florida and Michigan hold new primaries, Senator Clinton will need to win an average of 58.6% in all the remaining contests, including Florida and Michigan. That’s considerably higher than the 53.8% she would need on average in every remaining contest if Florida and Michigan’s delegates were seated based on the January primary results. Senator Clinton has achieved 58% in only three states during this primary season.

On the other side of the coin, if new elections are held in Michigan and Florida, Senator Obama will need to win an average of 41.4% in all the remaining primaries, including Florida and Michigan. Even though that’s higher than the 37.0% he would need under status quo in all the remaining contests, it’s still highly probable to achieve.

Clinton’s wins over 58%: (3)
Arkansas – 70%
New York – 58%
Rhode Island – 58%

Obama’s wins over 58%: (18)
Idaho – 80%
Hawaii – 76%
Alaska – 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska – 68%
Washington – 68%
Colorado – 67%
Georgia – 66%
Minnesota – 66%
Illinois – 65%
Virginia – 64%
Louisiana – 62%
North Dakota – 62%
Wyoming – 61%
Maine – 60%
Maryland – 60%
Vermont – 59%
Wisconsin – 58%

MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN

This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.

Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:

"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”

Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_st...

(emphasis mine)

PENNSYLVANIA

There are 158 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. Winning with 70% here would require Senator Clinton to pick up 111 of those delegates to Senator Obama's 47.

If she does this, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 60.6% in all the remaining contests, under status quo.

If new elections are held in both Michigan and Florida, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 56.4% in all the remaining contests including Florida and Michigan.

Only if Michigan and Florida are BOTH seated as is, from the January elections, AND Senator Clinton takes Pennsylvania with 70%, would she catch up to Senator Obama. That's a very tall order, everything considered.

MISSISSIPPI’S IMPACT ON THE TOTAL OUTLOOK

Mississippi’s 33 pledged delegates represent more than 5% of the 608 remaining pledged delegates to be allocated in this nomination process, but it represents only 1% of all the 3,227 pledged delegates. This being so, today’s outcome in Mississippi will not move the scenario percentages much.

However, it will move the Pennsylvania scenario percentages a bit, and could put the contest out of reach of the Clinton campaign, even with a 70% win in Pennsylvania.

So, Mississippi will have an impact on Pennsylvania’s potential impact.

BROKERED CONVENTION

Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.

Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_conv...

OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

The link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season. I’m still looking for actual rules or guidelines for the convention balloting process. Any links will be greatly appreciated!

Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/3e...



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