Postcards from the Lege blog 4/8/08
Jeff Smith: GOP crossovers not significant March 4

Just-completed research by Austin pollster Jeff Smith, who helps Democratic candidates, suggests that Republican voters didn’t widely cross over to vote in the March 4 Democratic primary in Texas. His breakdown—the first hard comparison of voters this year and voters in previous primaries—also suggests there was no surge in newly registered voters despite excitement about the GOP and Democratic presidential contests. Also, most Latino primary voters and most young primary voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary.

Smith’s review of crossover voting should put to bed serious claims that many Republicans leaped into the Democratic fray to keep Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential candidacy—and her battle against Sen. Barack Obama—off life support. Some suggested that a bunch of Republicans crossed over to make a little trouble for Democrats and believing that Sen. John McCain of Arizona was already the presumptive GOP presidential nominee—though he didn’t have his party’s nod secured until after he won Texas and other states.

Clinton won the Democrats’ popular vote in March, but is believed to be trailing Obama in total delegates from Texas because of Obama’s success in primary-night precinct caucuses. Each candidate’s delegate haul will be resolved at the state party’s June convention in Austin.