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teryang's Journal
Posted by teryang in Editorials & Other Articles
Sat Feb 03rd 2007, 11:25 PM
I fundamentally agree with the author's point of view but Syria is in a demonstrably weak position and has nothing to gain by engaging in a general conflagration wherein Israel and US "go for broke."

Pakistan would be most likely to continue doing what they are doing now and perhaps enhance their efforts in Afghanistan to drive out western forces by backing the Taliban. In fact NATO and US forces there, completely overextended would be forced to withdraw, as central Asian states declare neutrality and effectively close off US air operations and logistics. Pakistan's strategic arsenal is a deterrent reserved for use against India and would not be squandered elsewhere. I think the possibility exists an errant warhead or two could find its way to a proxy delivery system and end up in Tel Aviv but this effort might take years in response to conceal its origin. Hezbollah or a Hezbollah look alike could be the avenue for delivery. Then the question of the integrity of Israel's nuclear forces becomes a wild card in terms of command and control from a nation with no strategic territorial depth.

I envision the proximate result of US aerial attacks on Iran to play out entirely in the Persian gulf region and am of the opinion that Iranian missile attacks on Israel are a waste of time, tactically and strategically, due to the limited accuracy and impact of these weapons.

Clearly the land battle would focus on Iraq and those oil rich portions of Iran proximate to Iraq. Indeed many have speculated that this is territory that the US energy and banking complex covets. The naval battle would be two fold, first to control the straits of Hormuz. Limited US landings in Iran with occupation might occur to control significant waterfront territory and to destroy heavily fortified and concealed cruise missile sites or other naval threats. Secondly, US air and naval forces would destroy unfriendly oil infrastructure and protect friendly oil infrastructure in Arab states. If Iran chooses political targets rather than economic infrastructure in their targeting efforts, they will lose the conflict for oil lines of communication quickly.

An unconventional strategy of obstruction of commerce and harassment to disrupt the world economy would represent the most effective course for Iran. As in Iraq, the apparent lack of a substantial conventional defense would be misunderstood at first by the west and something akin to a military victory might be claimed early. Erratic unscheduled and unconventional attacks on west persian gulf infrastructure and shipping lanes would take their toll OVER A PERIOD OF YEARS. Such a strategy would aim at exhaustion of Euro-American strategic petroleum reserves.

Such an eventuality would be possible as Iran receives the covert but substantial military and financial support of China and Russia. Any nuclear attacks from Israel would result in complete energy cut offs from Russia to Europe and Israel. China would absorb Russian energy production surplus wherever possible. Both countries would claim to have nothing to do with the Iranian conflict. India would pressure all concerned for a cease fire and negotiated settlement as their country would sink into an economic abyss without relatively secure and economic energy supplies. The US would try to enlist the use of their armed forces in the conflict, unsuccessfully. Due to the European energy conundrum, eastern European countries would be unethusiastic supporters of the US war effort after several thousand casualties and a very cold winter.

The best case scenario for Israel and the US would be a purported victory where the straits are controlled, Iranian oil infrastructure is destroyed to the detriment of China, portions of Iran are occupied successfully, and there is no apparent ruling authority left in Tehran. On the other side, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards operate as a de facto guerilla government operation funded by our international rivals. They fight us in Iraq and Iran in an unprecedented war of attrition, sabatoging infrastructure out of area whenever and wherever feasible. What results is an unconventional and interminable war on a much larger geographical and economic range. Supported by China and Russia covertly the war could go on for decades and periodically result in isolated nuclear incidents with diastrous consequences worldwide.

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